Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Sun Rises in the West...

According to a news story in Canwest papers by Eric Beauchesne, the seven fastest-growing cities are in Western Canada

OTTAWA - The economic gap between eastern and western Canadian cities continues to widen, according to the Conference Board of Canada's latest outlook for 13 cities across the country.
"Although economic growth has been uneven between eastern and western cities for several years, 2007 is turning out to be a year in which the East-West disparity in economic growth is the greatest," said Mario Lefebvre, director of the board's metropolitan outlook service.
Led by Saskatoon and Calgary, the seven western cities included in the survey are expected to grow faster than all six eastern Canadian metropolitan areas, the report said.
With after-inflation growth of 4.7 per cent, Saskatoon will dethrone Calgary as the fastest growing city economy this year, it added.
"The provincewide influx of interprovincial migrants into Saskatchewan, due to lower costs of living and a strong overall economic performance, is benefiting Saskatoon's housing sector," the report said.
Widespread gains will drive growth in Regina this year to a decade-high 3.5 per cent, it added.
Edmonton's economy is not growing as fast this year as it did in 2006 when the economy expanded 6.4 per cent, but healthy growth of 3.6 per cent is still forecast, said the report, crediting still robust construction, particularly on the non-residential front, and soaring consumer spending.
The city's growth rate is expected to hit 3.9 per cent in 2008-2011, tied with Toronto and trailing only Calgary at 4.3 per cent.
Calgary, the leader over the past two years, will slip to second this year with 4.4-per-cent growth, which, while down from last year's spectacular 7.7-per-cent, is more sustainable, the Conference Board said.
With all sectors of the city's economy performing well, job growth will remain strong, leading to an eight-per-cent increase in retail sales.
Winnipeg's economy is also firing on all cylinders, driving growth to 3.7 per cent, the strongest performance since 1998, the report said, adding that construction will be an important contributor to growth thanks to major infrastructure spending and rising housing starts.
Growth this year will also moderate in Vancouver to 2.9 per cent and Victoria to 2.8 from 3.7 per cent for both cities last year, reflecting a stagnant manufacturing sector in Vancouver and a decline in housing construction and American tourists in Victoria.
Meanwhile, further setbacks in the manufacturing sector are derailing the recovery of eastern cities, the think-tank said.
"The strong Canadian dollar and weak U.S. demand have dampened Toronto's outlook," it said, forecasting growth of 2.7 per cent, which it described as well below potential for the country's largest metropolitan economy.
In contrast to most eastern Canadian CMAs, Quebec City's manufacturing sector has expanded this year and last, but housing starts are shrinking, limiting growth to 2.6 per cent this year.
Halifax's economy will follow with a 2.5-per-cent expansion, as strong growth in services and a rebound in manufacturing sector help offset slow growth in housing and weakening construction.
The national capital metropolitan region is experiencing a modest economic slowdown this year to 2.3 per cent, due to the end of the federal government's hiring spree and sluggish construction activity, the report said.
Ongoing weakness in manufacturing, offset in part by growth in services and non-residential construction, will limit Montreal's economy to just 2.1-per-cent growth this year.
Although the services sector and construction activity are doing well, the manufacturing outlook for the steel city continues to drag Hamilton's economy down; real GDP growth is forecast to come in at 1.3 per cent this year.
ALL IN THE WEST
Projected 2007 growth:
Saskatoon 4.7%
Calgary 4.4
Winnipeg 3.7
Edmonton 3.6
Regina 3.5

Source: Conference Board of Canada

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